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Urban daily water demand short-term forecasts based on the chaos theory

  • Kui Chang*
  • , Jin Liang Gao
  • , Min Li Chen
  • , Yi Xing Yuan
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • Harbin Institute of Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The characteristics of the Chaos theory are analyzed in this paper. The urban daily water demand short-term forecasts model, which is for the scientific forecast of the urban daily water demand, is built based on the chaos theory. The time-series of urban daily water demand is analyzed on the basis of phase space reconstruction and the historical data of water demand is used. The saturated embedding dimension, delay time and lyapunov exponent were solved. And they are used in urban water demand forecast. The urban daily water demand was taken by the forecasting model in a large city in the northeast china. As a result, the urban daily water demand short-term forecast model, which is affected by many factors, has a high precision and a good value.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 4th International Conference on Natural Computation, ICNC 2008
Pages696-699
Number of pages4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
Event4th International Conference on Natural Computation, ICNC 2008 - Jinan, China
Duration: 18 Oct 200820 Oct 2008

Publication series

NameProceedings - 4th International Conference on Natural Computation, ICNC 2008
Volume4

Conference

Conference4th International Conference on Natural Computation, ICNC 2008
Country/TerritoryChina
CityJinan
Period18/10/0820/10/08

Keywords

  • Chaos theory
  • Lyapunov exponent
  • Saturated embedding dimension
  • Urban daily water demand
  • Water demand forecasts

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