Urban community-level stay-at-home orders and small businesses: Evidence from chain restaurants in Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can effectively contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) when implemented promptly and decisively. However, legislative concerns on the economic repercussions of NPIs often delay their rollout. Utilizing proprietary transaction-level data from two major restaurant chains, we quantitatively assess the effects of stay-at-home (SAH) orders implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate a significant 17.5 % decrease in revenue for restaurants affected by these orders, with a more pronounced impact observed in densely populated areas. The study also reveals a notable decline in home delivery revenues, suggesting a comprehensive disruption in both dine-in and delivery services. However, post-lifting of the SAH orders, we document a rapid diminishment in the revenue disparity between affected and unaffected restaurants, followed by a robust rebound in overall performance within several weeks. Our study contributes to the broader discourse on the resilience and adaptability of small businesses in the face of public health crises, providing a foundation for future research and policy formulation in pandemic resilience planning.