@inproceedings{f414177c23674522bd61f2bcdeda36b3,
title = "Uncertainty Management in Construction: An Integrated Bayesian Update and Probability Distribution Reconstruction Method",
abstract = "Managing uncertainty in construction is increasingly challenging due to technological innovation and growing complexity. Probability distributions commonly used as inputs for uncertainty analysis but are often inaccurate due to limited prior reference. Additionally, static probability distributions cannot reflect dynamic changes occurring during construction. This study proposes an integrated Bayesian update and probability distribution reconstruction method for construction under uncertainty. Bayesian update continuously updates uncertainty factors, while the reconstruction method adjusts distributions to address deviations from initial assumptions and identifies critical uncertainties. A case study demonstrated that the proposed method enables to (1) update the uncertainties with limited prior knowledge during construction using real on-site data, and (2) identify critical factors to inform tailored management.",
author = "Shuo Wang and Yuanxin Lu and Yaowu Wang and Kailun Feng",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} ASCE.; 2025 International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management, ICCREM 2025 ; Conference date: 09-08-2025 Through 10-08-2025",
year = "2025",
doi = "10.1061/9780784486627.059",
language = "英语",
series = "ICCREM 2025: Decarbonization and Digitalization of the Built Environment-Shaping Resilience in a Changing World, Proceedings of the International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management 2025",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
pages = "635--642",
editor = "Yaowu Wang and Weizhuo Lu and Shen, \{Geoffrey Q. P.\}",
booktitle = "ICCREM 2025",
address = "美国",
}