Uncertainty estimation method for windspeed random fluctuation based on it's amplitude modulation effect

At present, with the development of wind's energy application and disaster prevention, the windspeed uncertainty must be estimated because of the existing large gap between the requirement of prediction performance and current techniques owing to it's strong random fluctuation. In this paper, a new method for windspeed uncertainty estimation is proposed on the base of physical mechanism, the inherent amplitude modulation effect in windspeed. According to the the atmosphere motion power spectrum in low-layers, the actual windspeed is usually decomposed into the hourly average windspeed and the turbulent residual error by many researchers. And the turbulent residual error and the turbulent standard deviation is modulated by the hourly average windspeed. Moreover experiments further show that the confidence interval of windspeed random fluctuation uncertainty based on it's amplitude modulation effect is more rigorous than that obtained by general statistical model. As a result, this uncertainty estimation method has certain physical academic meaning and engineering application value both in the electric system and the other wind domain.