Uncertainty analysis of wind energy resource estimation

Based on the current situation that the operating hours of the most of running wind power farms can not reach the design level, the causes was investigated from the perspective of the estimation of wind energy resources. According to the numerical experiment of incomplete gamma function which determines the estimated value error of average effective wind energy density, it is found that the error of approximate calculation is unstable and could be far away from reasonable bound sometimes, and results in the overestimation of average effective wind energy density. The extended FAST method and Sobol method are respectively applied to calculate one order sensitivity and total sensitivity of uncertainty quantities, including the effect of Weibull distribution parameters, cut in speed and cut out speed on estimation variance. The main factor contributing to variation of error was locked by the same sensitivities rank. Based on the results of numerical experiments analysis, the suitable constraint set of the application calculation is also presented. The test cases show that the error of approximate calculation can be limited by constraints.