Traffic impact forecast of constructive project and study of simulate analysis technology

It is the emphasis and the important problem in traffic impact analysis how to quantify the traffic impact after the project is built on the surrounding road network. After studying the traffic impact after the project is built by using artificial neural networks and traffic simulate analysis, the traffic impact forecast model is established. The input variables of the model are the traffic production of the project, the distance from the project and the background degree of saturation, and the output variable of the model is the road degree of saturation after the project is built. The model can predict the traffic impact after the project is built quantitatively and its predict precision is more than 90%. This paper also simulates the running conditions of surrounding road network before and after the project is built using software of VISSIM which is developed by PTV in Germany, and the traffic impact after the project is built can be analyzed straightly from such indexes as road network degree of saturation, average journey time, average road delay and so on.