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Traffic Conflicts-Based Crash Risk Assessment at Tunnels Using Extreme Value Theory Approach

  • Chuanyun Fu
  • , Han Yan
  • , Zhaoyou Lu
  • , Jiaming Liu
  • , Huahua Liu
  • , Wei Bai*
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology
  • Sichuan Police College
  • Intelligent Policing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Tunnels are bottlenecks in highway traffic, characterized by a closed driving environment. Due to the unique nature of the traffic environment within tunnels, traffic safety accidents occur frequently. However, there are still certain limitations in the current research on tunnel safety evaluation. This paper utilizes the advanced object detection technology YOLOv8 to extract traffic state parameters of vehicles from tunnel surveillance videos, and employs an extreme value theory model based on Time to Collision (TTC) to assess the collision risks of different lanes within the tunnel. Experimental results indicate that the collision risk is lowest in the slow lane. Although the conflict rates for the fast lane and the middle lane are similar, the collision risk in the fast lane is greater than that in the middle lane.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSmart Transportation Systems 2025 - Proceedings of 8th KES-STS International Symposium
EditorsKun Gao, Yang Liu, Chuanyun Fu, Robert Howlett, Lakshmi. C Jain
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages187-197
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9783032209627
DOIs
StatePublished - 2026
Externally publishedYes
Event8th KES International Symposium on Smart Transport Systems, KES-STS 2025 - Solin, Croatia
Duration: 25 Jun 202527 Jun 2025

Publication series

NameSmart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
Volume482 SIST
ISSN (Print)2190-3018
ISSN (Electronic)2190-3026

Conference

Conference8th KES International Symposium on Smart Transport Systems, KES-STS 2025
Country/TerritoryCroatia
CitySolin
Period25/06/2527/06/25

Keywords

  • Extreme Value Theory
  • Time to Collision
  • Traffic Conflict
  • Tunnels
  • YOLOv8

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