Strategic carbon emission assessment in sludge treatment: A dynamic tool for low-carbon transformation

The carbon–neutral target presents a significant challenge for the sewage sludge treatment and disposal (SSTD) industry, necessitating strategic planning for a low-carbon transition. However, flexible and comprehensive carbon emission analysis tools to support this goal remain lacking. This study presents a carbon emission analysis tool to evaluate the carbon emission characteristics and future mitigation potentials of SSTD. The tool integrates life cycle inventory (LCI) modeling-based analysis, sensitivity analysis, regression analysis, and scenario analysis. Carbon emissions are dynamically calculated based on sludge properties, technological level, and industry external parameters, providing a foundation for adaptable evaluation tailored to local conditions. The framework considers the potential effects of multi-parameter and multi-aspect changes in scene design, both within and outside the industry, to achieve dynamic and comprehensive simulations. A case study conducted in Wuhan, China, demonstrated the usability and application processes of the framework. The results indicated that carbon emissions from SSTD are projected to more than double from 2021 to 2060 without interventions. Among the mitigation measures, energy and chemical savings would yield the largest reduction potential, followed by the technical layout adjustment and the promotion of energy efficiency. Operational optimization in the sludge industry and outside the industry would contribute the least. With all mitigation measures applied, emissions could decrease to –82.91 kt CO_2-eq in 2060, equivalent to 13.03% compensation for emissions from the sewage treatment line. Among all the processes, incineration routes are recommended due to their current and future low carbon emissions. The cooperative resource route of anaerobic digestion and land use also shows promise as it progressively demonstrates superior performance with increasing organic matter and nutrient content of sludge. Critical factors, sub-processes, and emission types for different routes were identified and can be optimized accordingly. The developed method demonstrates sufficient flexibility to be applied to other cities and larger-scale regions, thereby offering technical and strategic support for SSTD towards carbon–neutral operation.