Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China

Zin Thu Win; Mahmoud A. Eissa; Boping Tian

doi:10.3390/math10173119

Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China

Zin Thu Win
, Mahmoud A. Eissa
, Boping Tian^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology
Menoufia University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss an EIQJR model with stochastic perturbation. First, a globally positive solution of the proposed model has been discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability and exponential mean-square stability of the disease-free equilibrium have been proven under suitable conditions for our model. This means that the disease will die over time. We investigate the asymptotic behavior around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model to show when the disease will prevail. Constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional method is crucial to our investigation. Parameter estimations and numerical simulations are performed to depict the transmission process of COVID-19 pandemic in China and to support analytical results.

Original language	English
Article number	3119
Journal	Mathematics
Volume	10
Issue number	17
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/math10173119
State	Published - Sep 2022
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

asymptotic behavior
disease-free equilibrium
endemic equilibrium
pandemic COVID-19
stochastic Lyapunov function
stochastic endemic model

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10.3390/math10173119

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title = "Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China",

abstract = "In this paper, we discuss an EIQJR model with stochastic perturbation. First, a globally positive solution of the proposed model has been discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability and exponential mean-square stability of the disease-free equilibrium have been proven under suitable conditions for our model. This means that the disease will die over time. We investigate the asymptotic behavior around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model to show when the disease will prevail. Constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional method is crucial to our investigation. Parameter estimations and numerical simulations are performed to depict the transmission process of COVID-19 pandemic in China and to support analytical results.",

keywords = "asymptotic behavior, disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, pandemic COVID-19, stochastic Lyapunov function, stochastic endemic model",

author = "Win, \{Zin Thu\} and Eissa, \{Mahmoud A.\} and Boping Tian",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 by the authors.",

year = "2022",

month = sep,

doi = "10.3390/math10173119",

language = "英语",

volume = "10",

journal = "Mathematics",

issn = "2227-7390",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China

AU - Win, Zin Thu

AU - Eissa, Mahmoud A.

AU - Tian, Boping

PY - 2022/9

Y1 - 2022/9

N2 - In this paper, we discuss an EIQJR model with stochastic perturbation. First, a globally positive solution of the proposed model has been discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability and exponential mean-square stability of the disease-free equilibrium have been proven under suitable conditions for our model. This means that the disease will die over time. We investigate the asymptotic behavior around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model to show when the disease will prevail. Constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional method is crucial to our investigation. Parameter estimations and numerical simulations are performed to depict the transmission process of COVID-19 pandemic in China and to support analytical results.

AB - In this paper, we discuss an EIQJR model with stochastic perturbation. First, a globally positive solution of the proposed model has been discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability and exponential mean-square stability of the disease-free equilibrium have been proven under suitable conditions for our model. This means that the disease will die over time. We investigate the asymptotic behavior around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model to show when the disease will prevail. Constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional method is crucial to our investigation. Parameter estimations and numerical simulations are performed to depict the transmission process of COVID-19 pandemic in China and to support analytical results.

KW - asymptotic behavior

KW - disease-free equilibrium

KW - endemic equilibrium

KW - pandemic COVID-19

KW - stochastic Lyapunov function

KW - stochastic endemic model

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85137783880

U2 - 10.3390/math10173119

DO - 10.3390/math10173119

M3 - 文章

AN - SCOPUS:85137783880

SN - 2227-7390

VL - 10

JO - Mathematics

JF - Mathematics

IS - 17

M1 - 3119

ER -

Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China

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Keywords

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