Spatial heterogeneity and impact scales of driving factors of precipitation changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Changes in land surface properties during urbanization have a significant impact on variations in precipitation. Little research has been carried out on spatial heterogeneity and influence strength of the driving factors of precipitation changes at different urbanization scales. Using a trend analysis and multi-scale geographically weighted regression, this study analysed the spatial heterogeneity and impact scale of driving factors of precipitation changes in 156 urban units in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration region (Jing-Jin-Ji). In summer, RAD (radiation), RHU (relative humidity), WIN (wind speed), and POP (urban population density) were found to act on a small regional scale, AOD (aerosol optical depth) on a medium regional scale, and NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), NLI (night time light intensity), UHI (urban heat island intensity), and AREA (urban area size) on a global scale. In winter, AREA and WIN acted on a medium regional scale, UHI on a large regional scale, and AOD, NDVI and NLI on a global scale. Across the whole year, NDVI and AREA had a medium regional impact and NLI a large regional one. Variations in natural factors, such as RAD and RHU, had a great influence on the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation changes, whereas human factors, such as NLI and UHI, had a small influence. In summer, AOD mainly affected Tangshan and Qinhuangdao in the northeast and Cangzhou in the southeast of the Jing-Jin-Ji. RHU and AREA primarily affected the cities of Handan and Xingtai. In winter, NLI, AREA, WIN, and UHI had significant effects in the cities of Handan and Xingtai, with AREA being the most important factor. In the Shijiazhuang-Hengshui area, RAD and NLI played a significant role; in the Beijing-Zhangjiakou-Chengde area, the most important factor affecting precipitation changes was the variation in POP. These results provide a scientific basis for flood disaster risk management in the Jing-Jin-Ji and the establishment of differentiated climate policies in different cities.