Social-Ecological Resilience and Population Shrinkage in County-level Units: a Case Study of Heilongjiang Province in China

This study presents an integrated framework to assess the social-ecological resilience of county-level units experiencing population decline, using Heilongjiang Province in northeast China as a case study. Building on the Human–Environment Systems (HES) framework, we construct a multidimensional evaluation model encompassing population vitality, economic capital, infrastructure, cultural assets, natural resources, and environmental protection. The analysis covers 61 county-level units from 2010 to 2020, examining subsystem coordination and population change–resilience linkages. The results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in resilience outcomes. While ecological resilience generally improved over the past decade, social resilience remained uneven, especially in the Harbin–Daqing–Qiqihar industrial corridor and in former coal-mining areas. Overall, coupling coordination between social and ecological subsystems remains low, though notable gains have occurred in border counties where cultural–ecological resources are jointly leveraged. Population decline exerts varied effects: in parts of eastern Heilongjiang, reduced demographic pressure has coincided with ecological gains, whereas in central and northern areas, out-migration and diminishing managerial capacity have weakened ecological resilience. In contrast, population decline has a relatively limited impact on social resilience or subsystem coordination. The obstacle diagnosis identifies limited household wealth accumulation, gaps in cultural heritage preservation, and environmental quality as the primary barriers to strengthening resilience, with low educational attainment and population aging posing persistent challenges. Policy priorities should therefore focus on investing in human capital, accelerated industrial diversification, stronger cultural–ecological integration, and low-carbon transitions through cleaner production and improved environmental governance. The proposed framework also provides a transferable tool for county-scale assessment in other shrinking regions.