Simulation study of the inventory effect of the scientific paper publishing process

By simulating the change process of the inventory of scientific papers according to a mathematical model of the publishing process, we find that publication delay would cause statistical error of the scientific paper output indicator, i.e. the quantity of published papers. Based on a simulation model and the average publication delay, we construct an optimization algorithm of the actual scientific paper output using a nonlinear least squares algorithm and validate its accuracy. To simplify the solution process, we propose an approximate algorithm of the actual scientific paper output indicator which would help science and technology managers practically deduce an approximation of the actual indicator. This has implications for strategy decision making and allocation of resources for science and technology research by policy makers.