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Robustness Evaluation of Emerging Mixed Traffic Flow in Snowy Weather Using Extreme Value Theory

  • Chuanyun Fu*
  • , Huahua Liu
  • , Zhaoyou Lu
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

To evaluate the robustness of emerging mixed traffic flow under snowy conditions from the perspective of crash risk, this study proposes a TTC (Time-to-Collision) dynamic threshold determination method based on extreme value theory to quantify the crash risk. This study simulates traffic flow during peak hours under continuous snowfall conditions in the SUMO software, and use eta-squared to evaluate the robustness of traffic flow under the various Market Penetration Rates (MPR). The results indicate that at different extreme quantiles, as MPR increases, eta-squared shows a downward trend. Especially under high MPR (80%), eta-squared can decrease by more than 45%. This result indicates that emerging mixed traffic flow under high MPRs can effectively improve the robustness under snowy conditions and reduce crash risk compared to traditional traffic flow.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSmart Transportation Systems 2024 - Proceedings of 7th KES-STS International Symposium
EditorsKun Gao, Yiming Bie, R.J. Howlett, Lakhmi C. Jain
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages155-165
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9789819767472
DOIs
StatePublished - 2024
Externally publishedYes
Event7th KES International Symposium on Smart Transport Systems, KES-STS 2024 - Madeira, Portugal
Duration: 19 Jun 202421 Jun 2024

Publication series

NameSmart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
Volume407 SIST
ISSN (Print)2190-3018
ISSN (Electronic)2190-3026

Conference

Conference7th KES International Symposium on Smart Transport Systems, KES-STS 2024
Country/TerritoryPortugal
CityMadeira
Period19/06/2421/06/24

Keywords

  • Connected and automated vehicle
  • Crash risk
  • Extreme value theory
  • Snow weather condition
  • Traffic conflict
  • Traffic safety

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