Robot adoption and carbon emission reduction: Mechanism and ripple effect analysis

With the rapid diffusion of industrial robots due to the aging of the global population, their implications for carbon emissions have increasingly become salient. Using a comprehensive industry-level dataset covering manufacturing sectors in 40 countries, this study provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of robot adoption on industrial carbon emission intensity. Results show that robot adoption significantly reduces carbon emission intensity in manufacturing industries. This finding remains robust after several robustness checks, including the estimation of instrumental variables and alternative measures of robot adoption. Mechanism analyses reveal that the carbon-reducing effect of robot adoption primarily operates through improvements in total factor productivity. Furthermore, a significant ripple effect is identified, whereby robot adoption in upstream industries amplifies downstream carbon emission reductions through interindustry linkages. From a policy perspective, these results underscore the relevance of promoting productivity-enhancing robot adoption and leveraging supply-chain interactions to support global low-carbon economic development.