Research on the Reliability Analysis Method of Typical Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures Based on the Probability Model

Ceramic matrix composites are widely used in the aerospace industry due to their excellent mechanical properties such as high temperature resistance, high strength ratio, and corrosion resistance. However, the complexity of the preparation process leads to a significant amount of uncertainties in the constitutive model of ceramic matrix composites, making it difficult to estimate the mechanical behavior of the structure under given operating conditions. Therefore, this work takes the typical structure of ceramic matrix composite materials as the research object, and establishes a macroscopic and microscopic strength simulation analysis model using the multi-scale method. Hoffman’s criterion is used to determine whether structural units have failed. Fully considering the dispersion in material properties in the macroscopic analysis model of ceramic based composite materials, a macroscopic strength model of composite materials under complex stress with random parameters is constructed based on the quantitative characterization of its distribution characteristics. On this basis, a structural failure reliability evaluation method with multi-source uncertain conditions is constructed. The macroscopic strength model is probabilistically analyzed based on the probability model and random analysis method. The reliability of ceramic matrix composite structures is evaluated using the reliability analysis method. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking the unit box model of ceramic matrix composite material as a numerical example.