Refined Failure-Probability Modeling of Distribution Pole–Line Segments Under Typhoon–Rainfall Compound Hazards

Overhead distribution systems may experience concurrent wind and rainfall loading during typhoon events, but most existing studies still emphasize individual components, single-hazard descriptions, or network-level consequences. To address this gap, this paper develops a probabilistic assessment framework for distribution pole–line segments exposed to compound typhoon wind–rain hazards. A three-dimensional finite-element model of a representative segment with three poles, two spans, and three-phase conductors is constructed, and uncertainties in structural properties and loading-related coefficients are incorporated explicitly. Correlated turbulent wind histories are synthesized using the Davenport spectrum and harmonic superposition method, whereas rainfall actions are represented through an impact-based raindrop spectrum formulation. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed for multiple combinations of basic wind speed and rainfall intensity, and the resulting peak conductor tension and pole-base bending moment are used as engineering demand parameters. Logarithmic probabilistic demand models are then fitted to derive failure-probability surfaces for the conductor, the pole, and the pole–line segment. Segment failure is defined through the maximum normalized demand among the central pole and the six connected conductors, thereby extending the assessment from component-level failure to local segment-level risk. The results show that basic wind speed governs the overall evolution of failure probability, whereas rainfall acts as a secondary but non-negligible amplifying factor that shifts the probability transition zone toward lower wind-speed levels. For the adopted configuration, the segment-level failure probability is governed mainly by pole response. Additional model checks and event-based comparisons support the consistency of the proposed segment-level probability formulation. The proposed methodology can support risk screening, warning-threshold setting, and maintenance decision making for overhead distribution systems subjected to compound meteorological hazards.