Probabilistic prediction of post-earthquake rubble risk distribution range for bottom frame structures

The rubble generated by the massive collapse of street-front buildings after an earthquake can seriously block roads, affecting the connectivity of the road network in a city and causing serious damage. To achieve the needs of urban planning, buildings facing the street are mainly bottom frame structures that cater for both commercial and residential use. However, once an earthquake occurs, the poor seismic performance of the bottom frame structures is quite prone to collapse, which produces a large amount of rubble and brings a great burden to the post-earthquake traffic system. In this paper, based on finite element models for various cases, considering the uncertainty of seismic intensity and height of the bottom frame structure, and combined with the fragility of structural collapse, we propose a method to predict the risk range of the bottom frame structure rubble to quantify the capacity of the transportation system after the earthquake, which can better assess the seismic resilience of the transportation system in the urban area.