Probabilistic prediction of post-earthquake rubble distribution range for masonry structures

In previous earthquakes, masonry structures have experienced large-scale localized or total collapse, and the rubble distribution formed after the collapse has had a significant impact on the post-earthquake transportation system. This paper analyses the rubble distribution characteristics of masonry structures on different floors (3, 5, and 7 floors) under 22 FEMA-recommended far-field ground motion records. A range model for debris distribution for masonry structures considering peak ground accelerations and building height is first proposed. Then, the risk range model for masonry structure rubble distribution was developed by considering the fragility of building collapse and the uncertainty of rubble distribution. Based on the model, it is able to predict the range of rubble distribution and the risk range of rubble distribution for buildings of different heights under different peak ground accelerations, and calculate the acceptable rubble distribution distance according to the exceeding probability of rubble appearing within a certain distance. It can provide data support for government decision makers to formulate emergency plans for post-earthquake transportation systems before the earthquake.