Privacy-Preserving Traffic Flow Prediction: A Federated Learning Approach

Existing traffic flow forecasting approaches by deep learning models achieve excellent success based on a large volume of data sets gathered by governments and organizations. However, these data sets may contain lots of user's private data, which is challenging the current prediction approaches as user privacy is calling for the public concern in recent years. Therefore, how to develop accurate traffic prediction while preserving privacy is a significant problem to be solved, and there is a tradeoff between these two objectives. To address this challenge, we introduce a privacy-preserving machine learning technique named federated learning (FL) and propose an FL-based gated recurrent unit neural network algorithm (FedGRU) for traffic flow prediction (TFP). FedGRU differs from current centralized learning methods and updates universal learning models through a secure parameter aggregation mechanism rather than directly sharing raw data among organizations. In the secure parameter aggregation mechanism, we adopt a federated averaging algorithm to reduce the communication overhead during the model parameter transmission process. Furthermore, we design a joint announcement protocol to improve the scalability of FedGRU. We also propose an ensemble clustering-based scheme for TFP by grouping the organizations into clusters before applying the FedGRU algorithm. Extensive case studies on a real-world data set demonstrate that FedGRU can produce predictions that are merely 0.76 km/h worse than the state of the art in terms of mean average error under the privacy preservation constraint, confirming that the proposed model develops accurate traffic predictions without compromising the data privacy.