Potential Reduction of CO₂ Emissions Under Rebalancing Process in China

This chapter analyses how economic growth structure impacts on the growth of CO₂ emissions from an overall perspective, supply-side perspective and demand-side perspective. Growth contribution of secondary industry is the most important factor on increasing emissions growth in supply-side. Growth contribution of consumption and net outflow are the most significant ones in demand-side, but due to the tiny share of net outflow and inventory change, consumption actually becomes the most important factor to induce emissions as a result. Supply-side structural change can be more helpful to reduce CO₂ emissions while increasing share of consumption in demand-side structural change will hinder emission reduction. Potential reduction is discussed under future rebalancing process in China with reference to the forecasts from official organisations. Comparing the most radical situation with the most conservative one under the same GDP growth level, an approximate 0.2% decline of CO₂ emissions under different supply-side growth structures can be observed. A possible potential 0.21%, 0.13% and 0.13% fluctuation of CO₂ emissions can be observed corresponding to 6%, 5.5% and 5% GDP growth rate under different demand-side growth structures. Additionally, lots of information like energy structure change, emission reduction policies or technological progress are hided into year effects which need to be discussed carefully in further studies.