Phosphorus flow changes driven by soaring LiFePO₄ batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage systems in China: Past and future perspectives

The advancement of the lithium-ion battery (LIB) industry poses pressures on resource availability and environmental protection. Our findings indicate that both demand and scrap amount of LIBs in China will continue to grow in the coming decades as LiFePO₄ batteries gradually dominate. Secondary utilization (SU) which can alleviate these pressures, however, is projected to face a supply-demand bottleneck in 2039. In 2022, phosphorus demand from the LIB system accounted for 2.7 % of total phosphate ore extraction and is expected to reach 9.0 times that level in 2050 in the high scenario without SU. SU can substantially enhance phosphorus utilization efficiency, reducing projected demand growth to 7.9 times, or 2.5 times in the low-demand scenario. A similar trend in phosphorus losses is observed. To address the ongoing increase in phosphorus demand and loss, recycling of the LiFePO₄ precursor, FePO₄, should be promoted to support the sustainable development of China's LIB industry.