Peaking Carbon Emissions in a Megacity through Economic Restructuring: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

With the growing cost of carbon emissions reduction, the application of industrial restructuring to suppress carbon emissions is becoming more attractive. By constructing an input-output optimization model, this study explored how industrial restructuring helps megacities synergistically achieve carbon peak and high-quality development. The results showed that through contributing 164.4% of the reduction in emissions from 2020 to 2025, industrial structure optimization significantly inhibited the growth of carbon emissions; From 2020 to 2025, the manufacturing structure continued to be high-end, which resulted in a reduction in industrial carbon emissions by 10.3%; through vigorous development of the low-carbon service industry, the carbon emission of the service industry would continue to slow down at an average annual rate of 2.4%. Industrial premiumization and the low-carbonization of the modern service sector are the key driving forces for Shenzhen to achieve low-carbon transformation. The results also showed that the power and retail sectors are the most important for emissions reduction. This study can provide a roadmap for megacities on how to explore potential emission reduction via optimizing their economic structure to help them achieve their carbon emissions peak.