Pathway optimization for urban energy system transition under dual carbon goals: A case study of Guangzhou city, China

To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the low-carbon transition of urban energy systems is of paramount importance. However, uncertainties regarding emission patterns and mitigation potentials pose significant challenges to the formulation of effective transition pathways. In this context, this study develops an integrated optimization framework for urban carbon mitigation, incorporating carbon accounting, analysis, and trajectory design. A parameterized model is proposed to characterize urban carbon emission trajectories aligned with the dual carbon goals. Crucially, the derived emission trajectory is embedded as a constraint into a medium- and long-term electricity demand forecasting model, thereby establishing the optimization boundaries for the dynamic planning of the urban power generation structure. A case study of Guangzhou validates the proposed framework. The results indicate that local renewable capacity expands rapidly during the peaking period, reaching saturation by 2040. By 2060, renewables will account for 86.4% of local installed capacity, yet local supply will meet less than 50% of electricity demand, implying a heavy reliance on inter-regional power imports. Moreover, the renewable penetration rate of imported electricity must exceed 78.7%. This study provides a systematic integrated optimization framework​ and methodological support for cities to design low-carbon transition pathways under the dual carbon goals.