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On post-processing day-ahead NWP forecasts using Kalman filtering

  • Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Kalman filtering is an important concept in engineering and statistics. In the field of solar forecasting, it is well known as a numerical weather prediction (NWP) post-processing technique. However, it appears that this acknowledged post-processing technique needs some revisit. Since Kalman filtering is a sequential procedure, i.e., actual measurement from t is required to filter the forecast made for time t+1, it changes the forecast horizon of NWP from day-ahead to hour-ahead. Hence, the previously claimed improvements over NWP forecasts are not interpretable. Two simple remedies are proposed, which address the forecast horizon problem, but the effectiveness of the remedies is thought to be minimal.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)179-181
Number of pages3
JournalSolar Energy
Volume182
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2019
Externally publishedYes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
    SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

  • Kalman filter
  • NWP
  • Post-processing
  • Solar forecasting

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