Navigating urban shrinkage: Spatial influencing factors and strategic priorities for urban spatial performance in Heilongjiang Province, China

In sustainable urbanization, urban spatial elements and spatial efficiency outcomes are central elements used to quantitatively analyze spatial performance. Previous studies have not focused on shrinking cities. This study establishes a spatial element indicator system from the scale-structure-connection (SSC) dimension based on the spatial characteristics of the scale paradox, structural crisis, and relational imbalance in shrinking cities. It employs geographical detectors to reveal the effective spatial influencing elements affecting the spatial efficiency of shrinking cities in Heilongjiang Province, China, for which targeted strategies are proposed. The results show that urban spatial scale has the most prominent influence on the spatial performance of shrinking cities. Among them, control of the urban land scale, allocation of resource bases, and coordination of service facilities should not be neglected. Among the SSC dimensions, economic, social, and population benefits favor the influence of a single spatial dimension, while ecological and land benefits tend to be more influenced by multiple spatial dimensions. For different spatial benefits, different responses focused on urban-scale adjustment, spatial structure optimization, and spatial connectivity enhancement should be provided to further promote the sustainability of shrinking cities.