Mapping spatial-seasonal differences in waterfront vitality: Determinants and adaptive strategies for a cold-climate city

Globally, urban regeneration is prioritizing the enhancement of public space vitality, particularly in challenging environments like cold-climate cities where sustainable development is crucial. Domestically, China's urban planning is shifting towards people-oriented quality improvements. Within this context, seasonal variations in cold-climate cities significantly impact human activity patterns. In waterfront areas, prolonged ice cover and economic constraints often lead to underutilization, negatively affecting community vitality. This study utilizes hourly pedestrian flow data from the Baidu Heat Map Dataset (BHMD) to analyze the vitality distribution of 50 communities along the Majiagou River in Harbin, a typical cold-climate city, during winter and summer. We apply Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models to examine the relationships between vitality and various influencing factors. The findings reveal that: (1) The spatial distribution of community vitality density and stability follows a multi-centered, clustered pattern, with vitality density higher in summer but stability greater in winter. Both metrics are higher on weekends than on weekdays; (2) We identified twelve factors influencing vitality density and nine affecting vitality stability, both exhibiting seasonal variations and spatial heterogeneity; (3) The MGWR model outperforms the OLS model, confirming the existence of “high-density, high-stability” zones. Finally, the study proposes targeted planning strategies, offering a practical framework for evaluating and enhancing the cohesion and attractiveness of community governance and urban design in seasonal environments.