Abstract
Climatology and persistence are the two most popular naïve reference methods for benchmarking deterministic solar forecasts. Depending on the forecast horizon, the preferred reference methods differ. This brief note derives the general relationship among climatology, persistence, and their optimal convex combination. The value of the lag-h autocorrelation is shown to be the main indicator of choice for the standard of reference.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 981-985 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | Solar Energy |
| Volume | 193 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 15 Nov 2019 |
| Externally published | Yes |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy -
SDG 13 Climate Action
Keywords
- Climatology
- Persistence
- Skill score
- Solar forecasting
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