Macroeconomic impacts under the trend of energy use transformation on China’s auto industry based on CGE model - Case study of Guangdong

In order to alleviate energy shortages and environmental pollution problems, new energy vehicles have become an important development direction of the automotive industry today, including electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, hydrogen-powered vehicles and so on. At present, China has the advantage of becoming the world’s largest electric vehicle market, accounting for about half of global sales. International automakers are also investing heavily in China. The energy consumption of Chinese cars is in the stage of upgrading from fossil fuels to clean energy. Energy conservation and emission reduction are also important issues for the Chinese government. In this research context, this study attempts to establish a CGE model based on the data of Guangdong social accounting matrix to simulate the change of energy prices under the policy promotion and the reduction of automobile fossil fuel consumption for the economic system. The impact of simulating the improvement of environmental pollution caused by structural changes in energy use provides a scientific basis for the government’s macro decision-making. This study is mainly aimed at the economic impact of consumer preferences change caused by government’s policies and publicity to promote the new energy vehicle development, we divided the energy use transformation into 2 ways: general and high level promotion. In each stage, we simulated the macroeconomic impacts and found significant changes caused by consumption structure change.