Low-carbon planning for integrated power-gas-hydrogen system with Wasserstein-distance based scenario generation method

To facilitate the low-carbon energy transition, the penetration of hydrogen energy is progressively increasing. Driven by the fact that electricity and natural gas serve as primary feedstocks for hydrogen (H₂) production, the power grid, natural gas network, and hydrogen network are intricately coupled and interact. In light of this tight integration, this paper proposes a low-carbon planning framework for the integrated power-gas-hydrogen system to mitigate carbon emissions in the H₂ production process. The proposed collaborative planning method seeks to determine the optimal installation strategy and achieve the most cost-effective planning under emission constraints. In the proposed multi-energy model, both steam methane reforming (SMR) and water electrolysis are considered as H₂ production methods. The reduction of emissions in the H₂ production process is achieved by leveraging renewable energy sources (RESs) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technique. Additionally, the collaborative low-carbon planning method not only considers the coupling energy flow, but also analyzes the carbon flow by carbon emission flow (CEF) model. Furthermore, to address uncertainties associated with the RESs, a Wasserstein distance and Gaussian mixture model based uncertainty modeling method (W-GMM) is proposed to generate scenarios of wind and solar power. Finally, the low-carbon planning method and uncertainty modeling methods are validated through an integrated system of a 24-bus power grid, a 9-node hydrogen network and a 7-node natural gas network. Through decarbonization planning, the total emissions of three HPSs are reduced to 3.89 kt CO₂ with the cap set as 5 kt CO₂, achieving a 70.6% reduction from the initial emissions of 13.23 kt CO₂, which highlights the effectiveness of the decarbonization effect of the proposed approach.