Long-term decision making of water availability and wastewater treatment necessity in Chinese rural areas: an analytical framework coupling system dynamics and water carrying capacity

Water resources and environment planning in rural areas are receiving more and more attention in China. This study constructs an analytical framework that integrates system dynamics (SD) model and environmental carrying capacity to discern water use governance actions in rural areas at the county scale for the next two decades. The SD model includes the dynamics of agriculture, livestock farming, industry, and human population on water resource demand and wastewater discharge. Governance actions are determined based on the ratio of water demand and water supply capacity, and the ratio of pollutant discharge and environmental capacity. Taking Liuyang County in Hunan Province, China as a case study. Four scenarios are compared including baseline, reduced discharge, reduced water use and integrated development scenario. It proposes the deadline of treatment actions and governance focus under different scenarios. The proposed framework provides a useful decision tool for rural areas in developing countries.