Life-cycle performance, design, maintenance, optimization, and decision-making of asphalt pavement under uncertainty: a review

The knowledge regarding modeling, analysis, prediction, design, maintenance, monitoring, optimization, and management associated with asphalt pavement life-cycle performance continues to evolve. Despite these advancements, the typical lifespan of asphalt pavements remains relatively short, ranging from 15 to 25 years, compared to other types of infrastructure, such as bridges, which can last up to 100 years. Rational decisions regarding asphalt pavement systems should be made using an integrated probabilistic life-cycle multi-objective optimization methodology by considering various factors such as safety level, total expected cost, and environmental effects, among others. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art asphalt pavement research. The sources of two types of uncertainties (i.e. aleatory and epistemic) are identified throughout the pavement life-cycle. Additionally, it highlights key accomplishments in the areas of distress/condition indicators, reliability, risk, life-cycle cost, sustainability, and resilience of asphalt pavement. Furthermore, probabilistic optimization methodologies that account for different pavement life-cycle phases are presented. Current and emerging trends and innovations in technology for advancing the life-cycle management of asphalt pavement are addressed.