Joint conditions probability forecast method for wind speed and wind power

Certainty forecast method could not meet the need of risk analysis and system operation because probability information was not included. This paper chose measured speed and forecast speed as joint conditions and made a discrete forecast error probability distribution (FEPD) model which could be used for next-time wind speed probability forecast. Firstly speed disturbance probability distribution (DPD) was adopted to modify skewness of FEPD with modification factor, then modified FEPD and certainty forecast value were combined to obtain wind speed probability distribution forecast result. DPD, FEPD and modification factor were all obtained from historical data with different statistical periods. In modification process, samples real-time scrolling technology was used to guarantee the distribution reasonable and promptly. Result shows that this model has a good effect when forecasting wind speed or power output probability distribution in next time range.