Inter-station travel reliability assessment of public transportation systems: under multimodal transport

Improving public transportation reliability can enhance travel quality and attract more passengers. However, most existing studies on reliability focus narrowly on a single transportation mode or specific travel time attribute. This paper establishes a comprehensive approach to evaluating travel reliability in multimodal public transportation systems. First, we propose a method to measure inter-station travel time distribution, considering bus, subway, and bike-sharing modes. The travel time encompasses waiting, transfer, and in-vehicle running time. Subsequently, we design a travel reliability indicator that integrates diverse travel choices and corresponding travel time distribution characteristics. Finally, we validate our approach with a case study in Harbin, examining the impact of critical factors on travel reliability through simulation and sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that multimodal transport significantly improves the reliability of public transportation systems. Moreover, effectively guiding passenger travel behavior and enhancing public transportation infrastructure can increase travel reliability.