Integrated weatherability optimization design tools for ice-shell architecture based on explainable surrogate models

The weatherability of ice-shell architecture directly affects both structural safety and industrial value. However, cost-effective solutions to improve weatherability remain limited. This paper proposes an efficient early-stage design optimization using surrogate models integrated with design tools. The degree of elastic energy degradation is introduced as a quantitative evaluation index. Generalizable spatial and shape features are extracted, and surrogate models are refined through Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) interpretation and validation with two engineering cases. The method reduces the data acquisition complexity and reliance on experience in the design process, thereby improving automation in the design workflow. Its universality makes it broadly applicable to airbag mold ice-shell buildings in northeastern China. Applied to a representative combined shuttle-shaped ice-shell architecture, the method reveals climatic coupling relationships and dominant design parameters, including long-axis length, support length, and orientation. Results indicate that the weatherability index can be reduced to 30–40 % through optimization.