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Implementation of chaotic analysis on retweet time series

  • Tsinghua University
  • Harbin University of Science and Technology
  • University of Hawaii

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Retweet has become one of the most prominent feature on social networks and an important mean for secondary content promotion. Most existing investigations of retweet behaviors on social networks are conducted based on empirical studies or information diffusion models (such as stochastic process or cascading model). To the best of our knowledge, such a retweet process has not been investigated as a chaotic process. In this paper, we have first examined that retweet time series by 0-1 test where the results provide identification of chaotic behaviors. Furthermore, taking into account of the proven chaotic characteristic, chaos LS-SVM prediction method is applied to form predictions using only a small fraction of the retweet time series. Our evaluation on Sina Weibo dataset and comparisons with a Bayesian model and strawman modal show that this nonlinear prediction method can translate to good step ahead forecasts and perform high accuracy in retweet prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2015 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2015
EditorsJian Pei, Fabrizio Silvestri, Jie Tang
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery
Pages1225-1231
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781450338547
DOIs
StatePublished - 25 Aug 2015
Externally publishedYes
Event7th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2015 - Paris, France
Duration: 25 Aug 201528 Aug 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2015 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2015

Conference

Conference7th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2015
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityParis
Period25/08/1528/08/15

Keywords

  • Chaotic analysis
  • LS-SVM
  • Nonlinear prediction
  • Retweet
  • Social network

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