Impact of Solar Irradiance on Low-Earth-Orbit Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storm

In recent years, with the rapid expansion of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, the orbital decay of LEO satellites caused by atmospheric heating from solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity has become increasingly prominent. Accurately understanding the orbital decay behavior of LEO satellites during geomagnetic storms is essential for managing orbital lifetime, orbit determination, orbit control, and collision risk assessment. This study investigates the combined effects of solar radiation intensity and geomagnetic storm intensity on LEO satellite orbital decay by analyzing 130 representative intense geomagnetic storms from 1965 to 2025. The results demonstrate that during geomagnetic storms, both solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity jointly influence orbital decay: solar irradiance primarily determines the total decay magnitude, while geomagnetic activity mainly affects short-term decay rates through transient disturbances. Furthermore, solar radiation intensity shows a stronger correlation with orbital decay than storm intensity. Therefore, effective orbit maintenance strategies for LEO satellites should emphasize the influence of solar radiation intensity in addition to geomagnetic storm intensity. Our findings provide valuable references for developing operational orbit maintenance protocols for LEO satellites during space weather events.