How to Realize Synergistic Emission Reduction in Future Urban Agglomerations: Spatial Planning Approaches to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Land Use: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Land use changes in rapidly urbanizing regions around the world constitute a principal anthropogenic element fueling the surge in carbon emissions. Here, land use patterns within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration under low-carbon development (LCD) scenarios were simulated. Additionally, social network analysis was employed to formulate carbon balance planning guidelines for various administrative regions. (1) In the ecological protection scenario, carbon emissions from land use were 643.42 × 10⁴ tons lower compared to the natural development scenario. Counties with high ecological support coefficients accounted for 22%, making them better suited for predicting outcomes related to low-carbon-oriented land use. (2) The spatial connections of carbon emissions in BTH were closely related, forming the three main carbon emission spatial linkage areas. (3) A carbon balance zoning plan for the BTH in 2035 under the LCD scenario was formulated. Furthermore, key areas for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality projects were delineated, and targeted measures for carbon reduction and sink increase were proposed. This study provides a new perspective for implementing territorial spatial planning in Chinese urban agglomerations and can aid the government in formulating a reasonable low-carbon-oriented regional planning policy.