How does export composition improvement affect carbon dioxide emissions in BRI countries? The mediating role of industrial structure upgrading and the moderating role of intellectual property protection

Climate change, caused by carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, has become increasingly severe and is a serious constraint on the sustainable development of the global economy. Economists are aware of the close relationship between export trade and the growth of CO₂ emissions, especially for the Belt and Road Initiative countries that are experiencing economic growth and transformation. Extant literature also agrees that the composition of the export basket is one of the crucial factors influencing CO₂ emissions, but the mechanisms by which changes in the export basket affect carbon emissions from a sustainable production perspective remain unexplored. Based on international trade theory, this study examines how shifts in production patterns affect subsequent CO₂ emissions through the lens of exogenously driven changes in the composition of a country’s exports, with the consideration of the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading and the moderating role of intellectual property protection simultaneously. The results reveal that export composition improvement contributes to carbon reduction, and industrial structure upgrading plays a significant mediating role in the export composition improvement for carbon reduction. Intellectual property protection moderates the relationship between export composition improvement and industrial structure upgrading. The mediating effect of export composition improvement affecting carbon emissions reduction through industrial structure upgrading is also moderated by intellectual property protection.