High-Order Mean-Field Approximations for Adaptive Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model in Finite-Size Networks

Exact solutions of epidemic models are critical for identifying the severity and mitigation possibility for epidemics. However, solving complex models can be difficult when interfering conditions from the real-world are incorporated into the models. In this paper, we focus on the generally unsolvable adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) epidemic model, a typical example of a class of epidemic models that characterize the complex interplays between the virus spread and network structural evolution. We propose two methods based on mean-field approximation, i.e., the first-order mean-field approximation (FOMFA) and higher-order mean-field approximation (HOMFA), to derive the exact solutions to ASIS models. Both methods demonstrate the capability of accurately approximating the metastable-state statistics of the model, such as the infection fraction and network density, with low computational cost. These methods are potentially powerful tools in understanding, mitigating, and controlling disease outbreaks and infodemics.