Heterogeneity and Decomposition Analysis of Manufacturing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China’s Post-Industrial Innovative Megacity Shenzhen

Effectively reducing manufacturing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is a vital strategy for China to curb its rapidly rising carbon footprint. Features of such a reduction in manufacturing include an increase in the share of high-tech manufacturing and optimization of the energy consumption structure. This study aims to analyze the case of Shenzhen, a unique post-industrial innovative manufacturing megacity, for its leading experience in China’s manufacturing transition. Disaggregated manufacturing emissions data of Shenzhen, including 27 sub-sectors in four categories, were collected, and driving factors were identified by the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results suggest that: (1) CO₂ emissions from Shenzhen’s manufacturing show a phased difference between 2008–2012 and 2012–2020. CO₂ emissions embodied in electricity consumption have increased by over 30% in the former period and have remained stable at a high level of over 90%. (2) Significant heterogeneity of CO₂ emissions in various manufacturing sectors is revealed, with the largest emissions sources being factories that make communication equipment, computers, and other electronic equipment. (3) Lower carbon intensity is the primary factor in reducing CO₂ emissions, while the economic activity effect of manufacturing possesses a stimulating impact. (4) The marginal impact of restructuring on CO₂ emissions is insignificant since the manufacturing and energy structures of Shenzhen have been upgraded to a low carbon level. Therefore, strengthening the power saving management and improving the energy efficiency of the manufacturing, rather than optimizing the manufacturing and final energy structures, will be a necessary potential solution to the problem of how to reduce CO₂ emissions in Shenzhen’s manufacturing.