@inproceedings{9965f7167a344b9793daccff3677c512,
title = "Forecast Model of Comprehensive Transport Freight Index Considering Macro Economy in China",
abstract = "To better construct the coordinated development of the comprehensive transportation system, the prediction model of comprehensive freight index in China was studied. Basic indicators of production and supply, benefits and macroeconomic were selected. Cluster analysis was used to divide the indicators into 13 leading indicators and 13 synchronous indicators. Factor analysis was used to analyze the importance of each leading indicator. The characteristic quantities of freight index were determined and the Granger causality test was conducted between the four indexes and the five characteristic quantities respectively. The relationship model between each freight index and characteristic quantity was constructed, and the validity of the model was verified. Results show that the freight indexes are volatile. There is a stable relationship between characteristic quantity and freight index. The error of forecast and actual value of is within 10\%, verifying the validity of the model. The results can provide theoretical support for forecasting the development trends of freight transport among various transport modes. The comprehensive transport will be improved to provide a decision-making basis for the national macro-department to make policies.",
keywords = "Clustering analysis, Comprehensive transportation, Forecast model, Freight index, Granger causality test",
author = "Yanli Ma and Jieyu Zhu and Yining Lou",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.; 11th International Conference on Green Intelligent Transportation Systems and Safety, 2020 ; Conference date: 17-10-2020 Through 19-10-2020",
year = "2022",
doi = "10.1007/978-981-16-5429-9\_16",
language = "英语",
isbn = "9789811654282",
series = "Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering",
publisher = "Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH",
pages = "231--244",
editor = "Wuhong Wang and Yanyan Chen and Zhengbing He and Xiaobei Jiang",
booktitle = "Green Connected Automated Transportation and Safety - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Green Intelligent Transportation Systems and Safety",
address = "德国",
}