Evolutionary dynamics of multi-stakeholder strategies in gas station transformation under VOC emission reduction policies

As electric vehicle adoption accelerates and volatile organic compound (VOC) emission regulations become increasingly stringent, the transformation of traditional gas stations has emerged as a critical pathway for achieving cleaner and more sustainable energy systems. This study develops a multi-stakeholder evolutionary game model involving the government, gas stations, and consumers, and integrates it with a system dynamics framework to examine how environmental policies and behavioral interactions shape the transformation. The model reveals the system’s attractor characteristics, steady-state, and evolutionary periodicity through simulation analysis and case-based validation. The results indicate that the stability of the system critically depends on gas stations’ strategic choices. When transformation costs are relatively low, gas stations are more inclined to adopt proactive transformation strategies, and such willingness to transform constitutes an essential prerequisite for consumers’ adoption of electric vehicles. Moreover, as VOC emission control costs increase, gas stations become more likely to undertake transformation to avoid substantial compliance expenditures. This occurs because government policies internalize environmental externalities by converting regulatory pressures into internal operational costs for gas stations, thereby incentivizing transformational behavior. Under conditions where regulatory costs are effectively controlled, the government tends to implement regulatory strategies; however, the decision-making interactions between the government and gas stations exhibit periodicity and time lags, which may induce system fluctuations. Therefore, when gas stations demonstrate a willingness to transform, it is crucial for the government to clearly and promptly signal regulatory commitments to guide the system toward a stable evolutionary trajectory.