Evaluating the green development level of global paper industry from 2000-2030 based on a market-extended LCA model

As a traditional energy and carbon intensive sector, it becomes imperative for the global paper industry to realize green development. This paper aims to provide guidance for the green transformation of global paper industry by evaluating the global paper industry green development level in a systematic and dynamic way. This paper employs text-mining method to develop paper industry green development evaluation indicator system and adopts market-extended LCA model and entropy-TOPSIS method to calculate the paper industry green development level of 48 countries/regions. The results show that during 2000–2030 the paper industry green development level of developing countries improves faster than developed countries, where those of developing and developed countries increase from 0.3369 to 0.3938 and from 0.5120 to 0.5517 respectively and the gap between them narrows from 0.1751 to 0.1579. The comparative analysis reveals that the paper industries of developed and developing countries are in different green development stages. Developing countries, represented by China, improve greatly in economic and social dimensions, but decline seriously in ecological dimension due to enlarging resource consumption and environmental damages. On the contrary, developed countries tend to saturate in economic and social dimensions and have been improving fast in ecological dimension, gradually realizing the decoupling of industrial economic development and environmental damages. To further promote the global paper industry green development, developing countries should focus on promoting the coordinated development between economic growth and environment protection and developed countries should play a leading role in the global green transformation by promoting optimal allocation of resources and cross-regional communications of green technologies.