Dynamic effectiveness evaluation of weapon system based on PFCSM method

Aiming at the problem of weapon system dynamic effectiveness evaluation, this paper proposes the weapon system dynamic effectiveness evaluation method based on probability finite combination state machine. The method can formally describe the key nodes in the whole process of weapon system operation in the way that states, inputs and transfer functions were applied to characterize the dynamic evolution of weapon system operation effectiveness, consequently, the operation effectiveness of the whole life cycle of weapon system can be evaluated. Taking the sea-skimming missile attacking warship as an example, we dynamically evaluate the operational effectiveness of the anti-ship missile in the whole life cycle and find the key nodes which cause the change of operational effectiveness, consequently, the dynamic effectiveness evaluation can provide auxiliary decision-making support for the optimization of combat planning. The reliability, dynamics, applicability and expansibility of the proposed method were analysed in conclusion.