Does Electrifying Residential Buildings in China Support Its Carbon Neutrality Goal?

Electrification is vital for building-sector decarbonization. This study used a life-cycle assessment that accounted for methane leakage to evaluate whether China’s building electrification policies can yield net climate benefits. The study focused on residential electrification across regions, covering cooking, domestic hot water, and space heating. Results show that emissions from heating regions were 4 to 6.43 times higher than those in non-heating regions. Among heating regions, the lowest emissions came from gas-based systems (wall-hung gas boilers, gas water heaters, gas stoves), emitting 37.78% less than coal-based systems. Fully electrified systems (air-source heat pumps, induction cooktops) reduced emissions by 27.25% compared to coal scenarios but emitted 16.93% more than gas-based ones. Under the current coal-dominated power mix, electrification does not necessarily reduce overall building emissions. The study identifies grid emission intensity thresholds for electrification to be climate-positive and compares them to actual regional grid factors. Findings indicate that if electrification is implemented immediately, more than 59% of regions would see an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Projections based on a cleaner energy mix suggest tailored electrification timelines are essential. This analysis supports strategic, region-specific electrification to help China achieve carbon neutrality.