Collision risk assessment for a spacecraft in space debris environment

A spacecraft in LEO (Low Earth Orbit) suffers the impact from the space debris so a method is needed to get the probability of survival before the spacecraft is launched into space to determine whether the spacecraft is safe. The paper presents a research on the risk assessment method, which is divided into three parts: the application of space debris environment model, technology of spacecraft modeling and the calculation of risk probability that is the kernel part of the research. A software "ARMOR", which has been developed using the production of the research, is introduced and the calibration has been performed with the benchmarks in the "Protection Manual". The results indicate the consistency between "ARMOR" and BUMPERII of NASA.