CoDeR+: Interest-aware Counterfactual Reasoning for Sequential Recommendation

Sequential recommendation aims to predict users’ next interactions by analyzing historical behavioral data. Traditional methods typically focus on learning fine-grained feature representations or extracting high-level user preferences to enhance recommendation accuracy. However, they often overlook the dynamic nature of user demand, which can shift over short periods and may resemble random noise. In our previous work, we introduced CoDeR, a framework that captures demand shifts and mitigates confounding biases through backdoor adjustment. Despite its effectiveness, CoDeR has limitations in its causal relation modeling, particularly in neglecting the role of user interest as a confounder. In this work, we propose CoDeR+, an enhanced framework that refines key components of CoDeR. First, we extend the original User Demand Extraction module into Interest-aware User Demand Modeling, introducing two submodules that explicitly model user interest and integrate it into demand representations. Second, we introduce a new Robust Counterfactual Demand Reasoning module, where user interest is treated as an additional confounder alongside demand drift, improving the causal correction process. Additionally, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the updated backdoor adjustment and propose a simplified probability estimation method that reduces computational complexity. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CoDeR+.