CMIP6 climate change and wind environment impacts on cold-region residential energy and thermal comfort: A case study of Harbin

The energy consumption of urban residential buildings and occupant thermal comfort are significantly affected by climate change driven by excessive carbon emissions. However, these impacts remain understudied in cold urban areas. This study examined residential buildings in Harbin, China, to evaluate the effects of future climate change and urban wind environment on energy consumption and thermal comfort. Meteorological data for Harbin were simulated for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 carbon emission scenarios. The urban wind environment was analyzed using Phoenics, and EnergyPlus simulated the impact on building energy consumption and thermal comfort. Results showed an increase of 3.96 °C in annual average air temperature under SSP585 by 2060 compared to the typical meteorological year, with SSP245 and SSP126 showing increases of 2.27 °C and 1.57 °C. Cooling energy demand was projected to rise by 142.5 % and 134.0 % for multi-story and high-rise buildings under SSP585, while heating demand dropped by 20.3 % and 15.8 %. Thermal comfort exhibited pronounced changes, as the urban wind environment improving winter comfort but exacerbating summer discomfort, leading to a 1.33 % increase in cooling demand and a 1.68 % reduction in heating demand. This study emphasized the need for Harbin to adopt a greener development path beyond SSP126 while addressing health risks from winter temperature drops and the environmental impacts of increased cooling demand. The shading effect of urban vegetation can effectively mitigate the increased cooling energy consumption caused by the wind environment during summer. These results provided a foundation for policy development in cold urban areas.