Climate impact of coal-to-clean-energy shift policies in rural Northern China

China has implemented the coal-to-clean-energy shift policy in rural areas of northern China to improve air quality, optimize energy structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a significant increase in natural gas and electricity consumption. The policies shifts can reduce CO₂ emissions, but methane emissions from switching processes may contribute to short-term climate impacts. The climate impact during the policy transition is still unclear. Thus, this paper developed a lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions framework for coal-to-clean-energy policies in rural northern China. The GHG emissions for heating and cooking, the two most energy intensive activities, were calculated. Four scenarios were designed based on energy types and equipment. Uncertainties in estimating lifecycle GHG emissions under different scenarios were analyzed. The technology warming potential values were calculated for the conversion of scenarios. Besides, the environmental benefits of natural gas versus electricity under emission reduction targets were compared. According to our findings, the total GHG emissions reduction of coal-to-clean-energy shift policies in rural northern China under global warming potential on a 100-year scale (GWP 100) is 1.83 million metric ton CO₂ equivalent (MMT CO₂ eq) in 2018. Since the climate benefits of policy shifts are driven by chosen technical routes, replacing coal with natural gas should be prioritized; heating with natural gas boilers can maximize GHG emissions reduction and climate benefits. By 2038, the climate benefits of electricity will be far superior to those of natural gas, based on emission reduction targets and electrical mix. There are numerous opportunities to reduce GHG emissions in China's energy sector, and there is a need for the energy industry to obtain better emissions data as well as to increase efforts to reduce GHG emissions.