Can Green Technological Innovations Promote the Development of Green Low-Carbon Economic Efficiency in all Cities? Insights from China

Green technological innovation offers the advantages of balancing economic and environmental benefits. However, its development is hindered by high investment costs and significant risks. To achieve the “dual-carbon” objective, the Chinese government actively promotes green technological innovation. Yet, due to substantial disparities in resource endowments and development stages across cities, the universal applicability of green technological innovation remains uncertain. Focusing on green low-carbon economic development and considering heterogeneous technological innovations, this study constructs a cross-environmental endogenous directional distance function-data envelopment analysis model to assess the green low-carbon economic efficiency of 284 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021. Moreover, the development potentials of green technological innovation and non-green technological innovation are identified. Additionally, a panel Tobit model is adopted to examine the factors influencing green low-carbon economic efficiency. The validity of the proposed model is verified, and the empirical results reveal a fluctuating upward trend in green low-carbon economic efficiency across Chinese cities, increasing from 0.37 in 2011 to 0.45 in 2021. This growth is primarily driven by efficiency improvements in underperforming cities. Most cities show greater development potential in green technological innovation, especially those in the western region and key environmental protection cities, while nearly 40% of cities exhibit greater development potential in non-green technological innovation. Moreover, the level of digital economic development and urbanization positively impact green low-carbon economic efficiency, whereas the degree of openness demonstrates a significantly negative impact. Finally, the targeted policy implications are put forward accordingly.